But for a controversial last-gasp penalty against Wales and an inability to build on a 17-6 lead against France, Ireland could have been approaching this game still chasing a Grand Slam. Their opponents this afternoon Scotland have only beaten Ireland (-9 Match Handicap) twice in 12 games in the Six Nations era - 2001 & 2010. Scotland have not won at Lansdowne Road since 1998 and have won only two of 13 Six Nations games with Andy Robinson in charge.
In fact Scotland have now lost five consecutive Tests - their longest winless run since 2004. The win in 2010 at Croke Park was Scotland's only victory in their last 13 Six Nations away games. The stats are really against Scotland (+9 Match Handicap) at this stage of the competition as their only win in the fourth round of Six Nations matches since 2001 was a 15-9 victory v England at Murrayfield in 2008.
A try for Ireland’s Tommy Bowe (8/1 First Try Scorer) would see him equal the record of six tries in a single Six Nations campaign held by Will Greenwood, Shane Williams and Chris Ashton. Ireland have lost just three round four games since the Six Nations began in 2000 and they are looking to register back to back home Test wins at the Aviva Stadium for the first time.
Ireland : 15-Kearney, 14-Bowe, 13-Earls, 12-D'Arcy, 11-Trimble, 10-Sexton, 9-Reddan;
1-Healy, 2-Best (capt), 3-Ross, 4-O'Callaghan, 5-Ryan, 6-Ferris, 7-O'Mahony, 8-Heaslip
Replacements: 16-Cronin, 17-Court, 18-McCarthy, 19-Jennings, 20-O'Leary, 21-O'Gara, 22-McFadden
Scotland : 15-Hogg, 14-Jones, 13-De Luca, 12-Morrison, 11-Lamont, 10-Laidlaw, 9-Blair; 1-Jacobsen, 2-Ford, 3-Cross, 4-Gray, 5-Hamilton, 6-Barclay, 7-Rennie, 8-Denton
Replacements: 16-Lawson, 17-Murray, 18-Kellock, 19-Vernon, 20-Cusiter, 21-Jackson, 22-Evans